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Demand and supply trends for refined products In Africa

01 Oct 2024

Presentation by CITAC
In 2023, oil products demand in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) fell by 1.4% y/y to 110mn mt. This overall statistic, however, is the net result of a wide range of factors, including subsidy removal in Nigeria, civil war in Sudan, but also continued robust growth in many markets. African refinery output continues to fall, perpetuating the trend observed over the past decade. 

SSA refinery throughput dropped as low as 365 kb/d in Q3 2023 and averaged 470 kb/d in 2023: this is equivalent to one mid-size refinery in the Middle East or Asia. However, the SSA refining sector is undergoing a long-awaited revival. SSA’s oil products imports have increased by 60% over the past decade. The clean products net shortfall is expected to narrow substantially from 78.4mn mt in 2023 to 55.9mn mt in 2026, as refining projects come on stream and reach full capacity. The deficit will start growing again after that with the clean product shortfall expected to return to current levels by 2037.

Strong population and economic growth will increase energy demand rapidly in the coming years. This increase will need to be met by multiple energy sources and oil & gas remain a key part of the energy mix. Although oil’s share of the overall mix is expected to plateau, in percentage terms, around 2035, absolute energy demand growth means that oil & gas demand will also grow. Energy transition pledges and policies are now an established part of the fundamental factors impacting oil demand growth but it will take time for grid-based solutions, in particular, to materialize.

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