Speaking during a CITAC-powered workshop at the Angola Oil & Gas pre-conference she that said Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has been central to the increase, reaching its 650,000-bpd capacity during Q2, 2026, while Ghana’s Sentuo and Tema Oil Refinery facilities are also operating.

The refining recovery comes as African oil demand continues to grow. Demand increased more than 5.8% in 2025 to reach around 2.7 million bpd, according to Georgieva, and is expected to grow by just below 1% in 2026 before accelerating to 2.7% in 2027. Demand is forecast to reach 186 million metric tons by 2045, more than 50% above current levels.

Despite additional capacity, sub-Saharan Africa continues to face a net clean-products shortfall of approximately 65 million tons annually. This leaves several markets dependent on internationally traded fuels and exposed to geopolitical and supply-chain disruptions.

That exposure has become increasingly evident in 2026. Georgieva highlighted disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz as a factor reshaping African product flows. The Middle East’s share of refined-product imports into South Africa fell from 75% in 2025 to 42% during the first half of 2026, while its share of Kenyan supplies declined from 76% to below 50%.

Beyond the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Georgieva also pointed to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russian exports, which contributed to higher fuel prices, foreign-currency pressures and demand destruction in several African markets. Together, these disruptions are challenging long-held assumptions about the reliability of global petroleum supply.

“There are a few changes in thinking required in terms of energy security and the energy mix. We used to assume that supply would always be readily available, but we now see that this is no longer the case,” Georgieva said. “We now understand refining to be assigned new strategic value. Stockholding policies are being rewritten as well as a broader diversification of the energy mix.”

For African markets, this changing geopolitical environment is elevating refining from a purely commercial consideration to a strategic component of supply security. At the same time, greater refining capacity will need to be supported by investment in storage, ports, pipelines, rail and strategic stockholding to ensure products can reach markets during periods of international disruption.

With African petroleum demand continuing to expand, Georgieva underscored that the combination of domestic refining, diversified supply sources and stronger distribution infrastructure will play an increasingly important role in insulating the continent from volatility in global energy markets.