Price Gains are Helping Producers - But Not Insulating Importers

Brent crude prices rose 50% from the start of the year to March, driven by disruptions in global oil supply and market uncertainty due to the Middle East war. After briefly hitting $119 on Monday - the highest climb since 2022 - prices settled at around $98 at market close. Prices plunged Tuesday to settle at $87.80, measuring $86.92 Wednesday after the International Energy Agency was reported to be weighing a potential oil reserve release - the largest in its history.

With Brent prices sharply higher than initial budget predictions for 2026, Angola is strategically positioned to benefit from increased revenue. The country’s oil production measured 1.027 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, a figure which is set to remain steady throughout 2026. While oil accounts for 90% of exports, Angola imports approximately 70% of its refined petroleum products, leaving the country vulnerable to escalating fuel prices. This vulnerability is particularly prevalent during the current geopolitical climate, with significant price hikes expected across the global refined petroleum market.

The Real Angola Opportunity is Closing the Crude-to-Fuels Gap

Angola’s import-export imbalance reflects a broader challenge across Africa’s oil market - a persistent reliance on imported petroleum. Multilateral financial institution Afreximbank estimates this reliance to cost Africa $30 billion per year due to inadequate refining infrastructure. But countries such as Angola are already making strides to turn this trend around.

With goals to increase refining capacity to 445,000 bpd, Angola is developing two new refining facilities to complement the operational Luanda (65,000 bpd) and Cabinda (60,000 bpd) plants. Presently, the country’s national oil company Sonangol is engaging Chinese investors to secure a potential $4.8 billion loan to complete the $6.2 billion Lobito Refinery - set to come online in 2027 with a capacity of 200,000 bpd. Preparations are also underway to construct a 100,000-bpd plant in Soyo. Together, these projects show that Angola is no longer treating refining as a peripheral industrial policy, but a core economic strategy.

Can Increased Upstream Revenue Fund Refining?

The central question for Angola is whether the recent upstream windfall can support its refining strategy. With projects such as Lobito and Soyo seeking capital and Brent trade well above the $61-per-barrel benchmark used in the 2026 budget, Luanda has more fiscal room than expected. But that upside is being offset by the same structural weakness that Minister Massano flagged: Angola remains exposed to higher import costs. In practice, that means any upstream windfall may have to cushion a larger import bill. Still, the current rally could strengthen Angola’s case for accelerating refining investment rather than delaying it.

Why AOG 2026 Matter More in this Market

These dynamics underscore why the Angola Oil & Gas (AOG) Conference and Exhibition arrives at a critical moment. Scheduled for September 9-10 in Luanda with a pre-conference day on September 8, the conference is positioned as a deal-making platform that brings together financiers, developers and industry stakeholders to sign deals and move projects forward. In a world where geopolitical conflict can rapidly turn crude strength into downstream vulnerability, AOG 2026 offers Angola a platform to convert today’s market disruption into tomorrow’s industrial capacity.